I saw the Obama acceptance speech last night. It was the most impressive, authentic, and encouraging political discourse I have ever heard or seen. Today, I read that over 38 million people tuned in to view the speech. This can't be good news for the Republicans.

Today, after seeing and hearing the Alaskan soccer-mom/Governor who is the new Republican VP pick, I was struck by how much she looks like Tina Fey, and sounds like Julia Sweeny in the guise of Pat. This gives the new candidate an odd SNL flavor. By most acounts, this nomination is a huge gamble. Does anyone really think this person is to be relied upon if Mr. McCain is unable to perform his duties as POTUS, or that the inclusion of a rigid abortion foe, creationist, moose-eating former beauty queen will attract disaffected Hillary supporters to the ticket?

Perhaps President McCain will appoint his paper boy to the Supreme Court, or find his cabinet secretaries among the nice folks who bag groceries or do oil changes down at the Jiffy Lube...

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Tomorrow morning, I'll head for the airport and a trip to Oxnard (North of LA) to visit my friend Manuel and his family, and to see the ocean again. It will just be for two days - I had planned to then proceed up the coast to the Bay Area to visit a number of friends and family there, but I just don't feel up the six-day stretch and all the extra travel stress. Maybe this winter, when all is bleak, frigid and gray here, the Bay Aea will offer a welcome respite of green and (relative) warmth.

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It's that time of year when I pass a few apple trees during the dog walks, and the branches that hang over the sidewalk or a back fence might offer a treat.



The garden is offering a pretty steady supply of fresh stuff, including the occasional oddity, like this parsnip that seems to have its ankles crossed.

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Pat and I were riding bikes to old town recently, when we ran across this sign which had fallen off a pole onto the road.

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It's scary to observe Obama seeming to falter in recent polls. I think he is losing some of the enthusiastic support he once galvanized as he increasingly seems to be all about modest aspirations and compromise. For example, he joined the congressional cave-in to give the administration what it wanted with their domestic spying bill - immunity for possibly law-breaking telecoms who abetted possibly illegal and unconstitutional surveilance of US citizens.

Today, on Huffington Post, there was an item by Jeff Madrick called Obama's Tragic Campaign: Our Last Chance.

"...This is not a class room. It is not a mere conversation. It is a battle for the truth and the future. It may be our last chance."

Photo credit: Kahnbarsst - licensed under the Creative Commons Attribution ShareAlike 3.0 Unported License.

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I was reading a column today at Seeking Alpha called The Great Consumer Crash of 2009, by James Quinn. It reinforced a lot of what I have been thinking about the tapped-out US consumer, and their role in what feels to me like an oncoming severe and prolonged recession. As I recall hearing over a year ago, the American consumer is flat broke - he/she just hasn't realized it yet (I think they are beginning to catch on). If you want to see some convincing evidence of this, follow the link and read this piece.

"...The 6,000 sq ft McMansion buying, BMW leasing, $5 Starbucks latte drinking, granite countertop upgrading, home equity borrowing days are coming to an end..."

I remember going to look a development of giant McMansions in Alameda when Pat and I were working in California a couple of years ago. They were jammed so close together there was barely room to walk along the sides between the front and back postage-stamp yards. Prices for the least monstrous had started around $800,000, but soon escalated to over a million dollars. People lined up to participate in drawings to see who would have first crack at lots on the next block to commence construction.

I wonder now, how many of those buyers used exotic mortgage products that are now resetting? The average person might feel comfortable with the California property tax liability (around a thousand bucks a month) on such a house as an outlay for shelter, but over half a working couple's earnings for a mortgage payment?

When I visit Alameda in a few weeks, I plan to walk around that development of giant houses, all financed at the height of the 'liar loan' and reverse-amortization frenzy, to see how things look now.


A tapped out consumer?

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I have seen the quote below several times in recent months. I first assumed it was not really attributable to Thomas Jefferson (my favorite founding father), but after poking around a bit today it appears to be legitimate. As I observe in detail the daily unfolding of the horror story that is our imploding national economy, I can only guess how the great man could have foreseen such a thing, and what he would have to say today as his worst fears are realized...

"If the American people ever allow private banks to control the issuance of their currency, first by inflation and then by deflation, the banks and corporations that will grow up around them will deprive the people of all their property until their children will wake up homeless on the continent their fathers conquered."

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I just got around to downloading a few more pictures from the ranch visit last week - this was the best on of us together, on the back deck. Now, if we could just get brother Phil out here for a visit...

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My sister Becky from Reno came out to pick up a horse trailer in Wyoming, and stopped by for a day in Fort Collins to see me.



A couple of days after she headed up to the ranch, I followed her up - last night during my drive it rained like hell all the way from Fort Collins to 30 miles North of Cheyenne. Today, we loaded the trailer up with good Wheatland hay for Becky's horses. She and I will both leave here in the morning.

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